In RA Step 2 Task 4, which elements are considered to determine likelihood?

• A. The characteristics of the threat sources, identified vulnerabilities, and safeguards planned or implemented to impede events.
• B. Only past incident data.
• C. Budget and schedule considerations.
• D. User access controls and permissions.

Answer: (A)

Likelihood is assessed by looking at three interacting factors: what threat sources are capable of and likely to do, what vulnerabilities exist that could be exploited, and what safeguards (controls) are planned or already in place to impede the event. The threat sources’ characteristics tell you how plausible and damaging an attack could be; identified vulnerabilities reveal where an attacker could gain access or cause harm; safeguards show how effective defenses are at reducing or blocking that possibility. Together, these elements establish the probability that a security incident will occur.

Relying only on past incident data doesn’t capture the current threat landscape or the protections that may be in place now. Budget and schedule influence response and resource choices but don’t directly determine how likely an event is. User access controls and permissions are important safeguards, but they’re only part of the picture; you need to consider the broader mix of threats, vulnerabilities, and defenses to judge likelihood accurately.